Vladimir Guerrero Not a Dangerous Threat to Red Sox

by abournenesn

Oct 8, 2009

Vladimir Guerrero Not a Dangerous Threat to Red Sox Here we go again. It's the first full week of October, which means the Sox are in Anaheim.

It's the fourth time in six years the Clash of the Coasts begins the postseason, and the history of this annual October matchup has been completely one-sided.

The Sox have never lost a playoff series to the Angels. Boston has beaten the California Angels, the Anaheim Angels and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the first round of the postseason.

Maybe they need to change the name again. Maybe it's time to call them the Orange County Angels. Could that change their mojo?

Probably not. There is a reason the California/Anaheim/Los Angeles team has never beaten the Sox — the Sox have been the better team each time. Certainly the last three times, going back to the three-game sweep in the 2004 ALDS.

The closest Anaheim came to winning a game in that series was Game 3, a game ended with an extra-inning walk-off homer by David Ortiz. That game was tied up by a seventh-inning grand slam from Vladimir Guerrero. It was a prodigious shot that threw Fenway into a stunned silence.

It was also the last postseason home run Guerrero has hit.

It's not for lack of opportunity. Guerrero has played in 17 playoff games since 2004, and hasn't gone deep in 63 at-bats. He has had some impressive series though, like last year's ALDS when he hit .467 against the Sox.

It's a staggering batting average for a short series, but a closer look inside that number shows you how little damage Guerrero did. In 15 at-bats over four games, he had seven hits — the most he's ever had in one series. Six of them, however, were singles. He didn't drive in a single run. 

The double he hit in last year's series was the only extra-base hit he's had in those last 17 playoff games. While his career ALDS batting average is .309, he has been a disappointment as a man who has been one of the most feared middle-of-the-order, regular-season hitters for more than a decade.

He is no longer the same hitter he once was. He is susceptible to the inside fastball, having trouble getting around on heat on the inside half of the plate. He's got a better lineup around him this time — the Angels had the best batting average of any team in baseball — but if he proves to be a hole in the middle of that lineup, the Angels' misery against Boston will continue.

Like all playoff series — especially best-of-five first-round division series — this will come down to how Sox pitchers handle this very deep (and very patient) Angels lineup. To be sure, there are some question marks surrounding Boston's rotation. The Nation is waiting for Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz to show that their recent inconsistency was just a bump in the road, not a slide that will continue into the playoffs.

The Beckett/Guerrero matchup in Game 2 is particularly worth watching. Guerrero hit two homers against the Sox righty this season. Beckett has had trouble with his control down the stretch, and Guerrero will make him pay for mistakes.

But Guerrero hasn't made too many people pay in the postseason. That trend should continue this year, which is one of the reasons the Red Sox should advance to an ALCS matchup with the Yankees.

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