It doesn't take an expert to notice that the inability to throw out opposing base stealers has been the biggest defensive issue that's plagued the Red Sox since the beginning of last season. Through 19 games in 2010, the problem's only gotten worse, with Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and the pitching staff combining to catch just two of 40 stolen-base attempts. The 5 percent mark ranks them dead last in the majors — the same slot they held in 2009 — and nobody else is even close, with the Yankees and Mariners tied for 28th at 15 percent.
Manager Terry Francona has stated on numerous occasions that the philosophy of the Red Sox doesn't change in believing that preventing a two-run homer will almost always take precedence over throwing a pitchout in hopes of anticipating a steal. With no real solution on the horizon, it's time to assess the damage to see if Francona is right.
Of the 38 opposing base stealers this season, 17 have come around to score. While it's impossible to say that they would or would not have crossed home plate had they been held at their original base, it is interesting to note that only one of those runners came around to score because of a home run. That means that of those 16 other runs, a conservative estimate would say that somewhere in the range of 40-50 percent would not have scored on the hits that followed.
Taking it one step further, there were at least two games in which the stolen bases were a major reason the Sox did not win.
The first came in the fourth game of the season, a Friday night matchup in Kansas City. With one out and a runner on third, Willie Bloomquist swiped second base. Rick Ankiel promptly singled into left field, plating both runs. In an instant, a 3-2 Red Sox lead turned into a 4-3 Royals lead, and that would hold as the final score.
The other loss was game No. 11 — a 6-5 loss to Tampa Bay at Fenway. Carl Crawford, who stole four bases in all during the four-game sweep, swiped third base in the first inning. He later scored on a two-out error by Mike Cameron, but it's safe to assume he could have just as easily scored from second. Later in the game, however, B.J. Upton was essentially given three free bases. First, he reached on an error by Marco Scutaro, then he stole second and third off Scott Atchison, and he later scored on a ground-rule double to give Tampa a 5-1 lead. The Red Sox' comeback attempt came up short, and they lost by just one run.
There were other examples, of course, such as Texas' marathon last Tuesday, when the Rangers stole nine bases without getting caught (the Red Sox managed to win 7-6). Vladimir Guerrero matched his 2009 season total that night with two steals.
Of the 38 steals, five were of third base, one was of home (Brett Gardner on Opening Day) and the rest were of second. That's important, mostly, because stealing third simply moves along a runner who is already in scoring position; stealing second gets him there.
So what do we know from the stats? For starters, there's the basic fact that it's become quite easy to steal against the Red Sox, even if your name is Vlad Guerrero. Second, of the 38 stolen bases, the runner has come in to score 17 times (44.7 percent), which has helped contribute to the Red Sox' 101 runs allowed (fifth-most in baseball).
The bottom line, though, is that steals may have cost the Red Sox at least two games, and even if they hadn't, it's been ugly to watch. Whether it be via pitchouts or just an added focus on holding runners, the Red Sox need to at least show that they're willing to try to stop the stealers before it costs them more runs and, eventually, more games.
