"While it’s a process and a tool that exists for both the player and the club, I’ve historically never found it that pleasant and I’m sure the players that have gone through it for the most part haven’t found it that pleasant," said Chiarelli last summer after signing defenseman Matt Hunwick to a two-year deal and "avoiding arbitration, which is always nice."
Barring an unlikely 11th-hour agreement, Chiarelli won’t be able to avoid the often acrimonious process this year, as forward Blake Wheeler has his arbitration hearing scheduled for tomorrow.
Chiarelli is entering his fifth season as the Bruins GM, and Wheeler would be just his second arbitration hearing. The only other Bruin to go before an arbiter on Chiarelli’s watch was defenseman David Tanabe in Chiarelli’s first summer with the club in 2006. Tanabe was awarded $1.275 million, and the Bruins promptly opted to walk away from the decision and allowed Tanabe to become an unrestricted free agent.
It would be tougher to let Wheeler go without any compensation. While he regressed a bit last year after a strong rookie campaign, has struggled in the playoffs (just one goal in 21 games) and doesn’t play the physical style one would expect out of a 6-foot-5, 205-pounder, Wheeler is still only 23 and has averaged just under 20 goals a season in his first two years in the league.
That’s not a number a team that finished dead-last in the NHL in scoring last year can afford to lose. Add in the fact that Wheeler is versatile enough to play either wing, contributes on both the penalty kill and power play and is both durable (just one game missed in two seasons) and reliable defensively (plus-32 in 163 games), and it’s easy to see that Wheeler is a valuable commodity. That’s something even an arbiter is unlikely to miss.
So what might the Bruins expect to have to pay to keep Wheeler around for another season? And how much can they afford given their current cap situation?
The Bruins are already basically at the limit without Wheeler and with top draft pick Tyler Seguin still needing to be signed. They have a little breathing room with Marco Sturm set to begin the year on long-term injured reserve as he rehabs from knee surgery, and they also have the option of shedding salary if they trade Marc Savard or trade, waive or buy out Michael Ryder.
Still, a large settlement for Wheeler will greatly limit Chiarelli’s options to get cap compliant by opening night.
Last year, Wheeler earned a base salary of just $875,000, but bonuses in his entry-level deal raised his cap hit to $2.825 million according to CapGeek.com. Despite seeing his totals drop from 21-24-45 and a plus-36 in 2008-09 to 18-20-38 and a minus-4 last year, Wheeler will be in line for a hefty raise on that base salary. But his second contract won’t be eligible for bonuses so it’s possible his cap hit could still come in lower than last year.
The market is in constant flux, but some potential comparables sure to be used in the hearing have emerged of late. The Bruins are sure to point at St. Louis forward David Perron’s new deal, as he signed a two-year pact worth $4.3 million. Perron, 22, has played one more year in the league than Wheeler, but in the last two seasons they’ve played an identical 163 games. Perron has 35 goals (four less than Wheeler) and 97 points (14 more than Wheeler) in that span, and the Bruins certainly wouldn’t complain if they could retain their young winger for a $2.15 million cap hit.
But Wheeler and agent Matt Keator can also point to Toronto’s Nikolai Kulemin, who re-signed for $4.7 million over two years after the 24-year-old forward managed just 31-36-67 totals and a minus-8 the last two years. The Bruins could handle a $2.35 million cap hit, but Wheeler’s representatives will surely argue that his superior numbers would be worth a healthy boost over the baseline Kulemin’s deal sets.
The Bruins also have to be concerned with the recent arbitration award given Atlanta’s Clarke MacArthur, who was awarded $2.5 million after posting 33-30-63 totals and a minus-20 the last two years. The Thrashers opted to walk away from that decision.
Wheeler and Keator can even point at several of contracts Chiarelli himself has handed out. He signed Ryder to a three-year deal worth $4 million a season in 2007, and Ryder’s 45-41-86 totals and plus-31 compare favorably to his frequent linemate Wheeler. Milan Lucic hasn’t come close to those kind of numbers with 26-36-62 totals and a plus-10 the last two years (albeit in just 122 games due to injury), but still landed a three-year deal worth over $4 million annually himself.
Chiarelli can argue the differences in each case. Ryder was a veteran unrestricted free agent with other teams bidding on him when he was signed, while Lucic provides a physical dimension and intangibles that Wheeler lacks. But arbitration decisions often come down to the strictly tangible numbers on a stat sheet. And that could lead to some large numbers on a new Wheeler contract that Chiarelli could have a hard time fitting under the cap.
