At 67-40, the Yankees have the best record in baseball as they head into a huge four-game series at home against the Boston Red Sox.
Like Boston, the Yanks have played well this year despite a handful of injuries to many of their starters.
Designated hitter Nick Johnson — who batted second against the Red Sox on Opening Night at Fenway Park — has been out since May 8 with a chronic wrist injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
Opening Day starters Curtis Granderson and Jorge Posada also have seen time on the DL in 2010, along with Chan Ho Park, Andy Pettitte, Alfredo Aceves, Marcus Thames, Sergio Mitre and Damaso Marte.
But unlike the Red Sox, the Yankees made some significant moves before the July 31 trade deadline to beef up their roster, and consequently, their playoff chances.
The Yankees added five-time All-Star Lance Berkman from the Astros to DH and play a little bit of first base, and they also acquired a pair of Indians, reliever Kerry Wood and outfielder Austin Kearns.
Although the Yankees’ run to the top hasn’t been as smooth as in previous years, they head into the final two months of the season with a full head of steam.
But as Jason Rosenberg from It’s About the Money tells us, it doesn’t matter how the Yankees win the World Series. Winning it is all that matters.
NESN.com: Do you believe the Red Sox, given their extreme amount of injuries, are a legitimate threat to the Yankees’ playoff chances?
Jason Rosenberg: The 2010 Red Sox do have a look and feel like the 2006 Sox, when you just knew “it’s not their year.” Too many injuries to too many key players. If you asked me this a week ago, I’d be more bullish on the Sox’s chances of making a legit run at Tampa and NY. However, with Kevin Youkilis done for the year, I’m not so sure they have what they need to make that run. If Youk was healthy and Dustin Pedroia was soon to return and Jacoby Ellsbury was back… maybe. This Yankee fan won’t quickly count out the Sox. But with Youk done and the hole getting deeper, it’s going to be very, very tough. I won’t take my eyes off the Sox until they’re officially eliminated. I give Francona a ton of credit for the job he’s done this year. A class guy all the way around.
NESN.com: Would losing the AL East and winning the wild card be considered a failure for the Yankees in 2010, or is a World Series win, regardless of how they do it, the most important thing?
J.R.: Sure, hosting a playoff series is an advantage. The Yanks record, as with most teams, is much better at home than on the road. In peeking at their possible playoff opponents, they have a winning record this year vs. the WhiteSox (2-1), Rangers (3-0), Twins (4-2), Boston (5-3) and split the series with the Angels (4-4). They have a losing record against the Tigers (1-3) and Tampa (5-6), though they wouldn’t face Tampa or Boston until the ALCS, if they get that far.
Making the playoffs from the AL East is an achievement, no matter how you slice it. The Yanks don’t hang banners other than World Series banners, so it matters not how that get there, but that they got there and won it all.
NESN.com: Alex Rodriguez hit his 600th career home run on Wednesday. How many more homers can we expect to see from A-Rod, and will they all come in Yankees pinstripes?
J.R.: Two parts to this one and I’ll handle the second one first: Yes, ARod will play out his contract in pinstripes. No matter how overpriced his contract is (and becomes as he ages), the Steinbrenners seem to really want the All-Time Home Run title to belong to a guy in pinstripes. We can argue about that one forever on any number of points and counterpoints, but the fact is, ARod’s going to finish his career as a Yankee.
I gave the answer to the first part earlier on ESPN, which was posted Thursday:
When Alex Rodriguez’s contract expires, he will be 42 years old. That’s ~7.5 seasons of productivity yet to complete. ARod has hit his 600 home runs at a 14.5 AB/HR rate. In 2010, he’s slowed to 22.8 AB/HR. ARod’s also averaged 621 at-bats per 162 game season. If we project that A-Rod continues at his current HR rate but at a lower 500 AB/season, he would add roughly 25 HR at year until he retires. Adding in what he might hit the rest of this season and he falls right in line with what Barry Bonds finished with, 763.
If A-Rod can pick up his HR rate to 30 HR a year for at least four of those seven remaining years, A-Rod can eclipse 800 home runs.
My guess: He’ll finish ahead of Bonds but less than 800.
NESN.com: A.J. Burnett’s ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals in 2010 have been much worse than his career numbers. What can we expect to see from Burnett going down the stretch?
J.R.: Ya got me. A.J.’s the proverbial enigma. His year’s been a complete roller coaster. His K-rate is down, but so is his BB-rate. Still, his K:BB rate is also at a low since his age-24 season. His monthly splits are pretty telling in how erratic and unpredictable Burnett’s been:
| Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | WHIP | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| March/April | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.43 | 5 | 33.1 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1.200 | 5.4 | 2.22 |
| May | 3 | 2 | .600 | 4.03 | 6 | 38.0 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 1.395 | 7.8 | 2.20 |
| June | 0 | 5 | .000 | 11.35 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 2.261 | 7.4 | 1.12 |
| July | 3 | 1 | .750 | 2.00 | 5 | 27.0 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1.222 | 6.7 | 2.22 |
| August | 0 | 1 | .000 | 15.43 | 1 | 4.2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2.143 | 7.7 | 2.00 |
He had a great beginning to the season with a low K/9 but a consistent 2.2-ish K:BB rate. His K rate peaked in May but his ERA also ticked higher. June was flat out awful, giving up a ton of HR and walks, resulting in a very low K:BB ratio. If this was solely due to the absence of pitching coach Dave Eiland, then that man is underpaid. As Eiland returned, so did the “good A.J.” in July.
He’s got a negative WPA and his FIP and xFIP are closely in line with his puffy 4.93 ERA. There’s no way to predict what A.J. the Yanks are going to get from one day to the next. None.
NESN.com: Joba Chamberlain is having an awful season with an ERA over 5. Does the acquisition of Kerry Wood signal Chamberlain’s full departure from the setup role, and if so, where does he fit in on the Yankees?
J.R.: Oh Joba. Sure his ERA is awful at 5.36, but if you look at his FIP and xFIP, he’s supposed to be better. He’s been doomed by a very high (and hopefully unsustainable) BABIP of .378, second in AL relievers (to Bobby Jenks’ .386).
I don’t think Wood will replace Joba as the eighth-inning guy. Right now, David Robertson has been installed there and has been doing a fine job. In fact, lately, Joba has been doing much better as well. It’s a small sample size, but in the last two weeks, he’s got a 3.18 ERA with about a K an inning and a WHIP of 0.706. This will continue to be a fluid situation, likely all season, with Joe Girardi going with the “hot hand” come playoff time.
We wrote a bit about Joba a week or two ago, so while the absolute numbers have moved a bit (to the positive), the tenor of this argument remains intact:
Using Fangraphs’ Pitch F/X data, it seems he’s throwing his slider more this year, and has virtually eliminated his change-up. But the change hasn’t been a valuable pitch for him, and was only really part of his repertoire last year when he was starting. And the fastball-slider combo is much more in line with what you’d expect from a short reliever. His fastball velocity is basically what it’s always been when he’s been used as a reliever, and his slider is even a little faster. The movement on his pitches is also not significantly different from where it’s been in years past. His walk rate is down from last year, and his strikeout rate, predictably is up to 9.99/9 innings. His HR/9 is also down in the neighborhood of where he’s been before.
No, the reason that Joba Chamberlain is struggling in 2010 can be traced back to one number: 399. As in, batters are hitting .399 on balls in play off of Joba. And that, boys and girls, is simply not sustainable. For one thing, BABIP that high are never sustainable. For another, as a team the Yankees are allowing a .286 BABIP this year. Chamberlain has, by 20 points, the highest BABIP of anyone on the staff with more than 4 IP. And in the majors? Joba has a higher BABIP than any other pitcher with more than 40 innings. Essentially, what this means is that Joba has been one of the unluckiest players in the major leagues. According to xFIP, his ERA should be a much more palatable 3.41 this year.
NESN.com: Will Lance Berkman’s career be rejuvenated by the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium? What does he need to produce in order for the Yankees to win the World Series?
J.R.: Will be be rejuvenated? I doubt that. He’s a plodding 1B type who, like most plodding 1B-types, doesn’t exactly age as gracefully as a nimble middle infielder.
However, he can be a useful and helpful member of this team. Already, Girardi has shown an interest in platooning Berkman, though I think this is ripe for second-guessing and smacks of “overthinking.” Me, I let Berkman be the DH every day that Girardi doesn’t need to give Derek Jeter or A-Rod or Posada a half-day off, and let him play 1B to spell Mark Teixeira a game a week.
What does he need to produce? Besides a strong OBP and another bat to fear in an already fearsome lineup, little else. Just get on base 40 percent of the time and the rest will take care of itself. He doesn’t need to him 15 home runs from here on out in order for him to succeed in NY.
Thanks once again to Jason Rosenberg from It’s About the Money for his contribution to this piece.
