This week should be a bit more quiet.
With three games taking place on Thanksgiving, there will be just six early games and five late games. The meaning? Well, for most people, there's less chance to enjoy football; for me, there's simply fewer games to predict incorrectly. (For Scott Hanson, it probably means fewer migraine headaches.)
This week, I'll be going head-to-head with a 1998 United States quarter, and we'll see who knows football better.
Click here to see Thanksgiving Day picks.
(Home team in caps.)
ATLANTA (-2.5) over Green Bay
Coin flip pick: ATLANTA (-2.5)
For the 50th time this year, we'll find out who the best team in the NFL is … until that team loses the next week.
I have to say, I hate this line. The Falcons are 5-0 at home, but they've won their last four by an average of just five points. And that's been against some inferior opponents like San Francisco and Cincinnati. Ultimately, the Packers will struggle, if for no reason other than the fact that they're rusty because they haven't played an NFL team since Oct. 31. Still, it might take a Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection in the final minute again.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over BUFFALO
Coin flip pick: Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Thank goodness the Bills put up 49 points against the awful Bengals. It definitely had an effect on this line and thereby made this week's game that much easier to pick.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "If you're looking for one reason to take Oakland [over Pittsburgh], here it is: The Raiders have 27 sacks, just one shy of the NFL lead. The Patriots, who had just 13 in their first eight games, registered five last week against that Pittsburgh offensive line that has some serious issues."
Note: The Raiders had a whopping two sacks. So much for that.
CLEVELAND (-11) over Carolina
Coin flip pick: CLEVELAND (-11)
The average score of the 10 Carolina Panthers games that have taken place this season is 25-12, in favor of the Panthers' opponent. Somehow, the games don't even seem that close.
The way the Browns have struggled late in games for the past two weeks would normally be a concern, but, well, Carolina just isn't a normal NFL team.
(If you had told me in July that not only would the Browns be an 11-point favorite in Week 12 but that I'd be taking them, I would have probably gotten violent.)
RQFLWP: "Maybe they can't win tight games against playoff teams, but Jacksonville, at 4-4, is the type of team the Browns can beat."
Note: Or, Jacksonville is exactly the type of team that can smoke the Browns 14-3 in the fourth quarter and steal a win.
Jacksonville (+8.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Coin flip pick: Jacksonville (+8.5)
David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and the three-straight-win Jaguars are on an absolute roll. I'm not saying the Giants will lose this game, but I'm not not saying they'll lose it, either.
Was that a triple negative?
And would this coin disagree with me at some point? This is getting somewhat freaky.
WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Minnesota
Coin flip pick: WASHINGTON (-2.5)
There's no way Leslie Frazier walks into his fancy new office and immediately decides to bench Brett Favre. That's just not how things work in Favre's world.
Yet, one more ugly game could spell the end for Mr. Favre. Washington's defense is middle-of-the-road in terms of sacks and interceptions, but it's certainly good enough to cause fits for No. 4. If Donovan McNabb can maintain his cardiovascular endurance, he might just be all right.
Say what you will about the pathetic showing by the Vikings this year, but they've been by far the most entertaining team in the league. Let's hope Favre continues his weekly news conferences with the media, even when he's a backup.
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Tennessee
Coin flip pick: Tennessee (+6.5)
You hate to pick a team that just collapsed in the final minute the way Houston just did. Yet, you hate even more to pick a team that will start Rusty Smith at quarterback.
For one, his name is Rusty Smith. Second, he kind of looks like Cricket from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Third, his name is Rusty Smith.
OAKLAND (-3) over Miami
Coin flip pick: OAKLAND (-3)
I really wanted to get tricky with this one and go with the Dolphins, particularly if Nnamdi Asomugha is still out. But, when you look back at that atrocity against Chicago last Thursday, you just can't do it.
Obviously, you can't overreact to one week's performance, but if that's how the team will play behind Tyler Thigpen, and if that's how Tyler Thigpen is going to play as Tyler Thigpen, it's just not going that well.
(Worth mocking: How 'bout that Miami ground game last week? Seven carries by the running backs resulting in a whopping 12 yards!)
Kansas City (-1.5) over SEATTLE
Coin flip pick: Kansas City (-1.5)
Last week, I gave the Chiefs one last chance to keep me on board, and it paid off. You want me to jump off now? You don't think Charlie Weis isn't interested in sticking it to Pete Carroll? Do you really think Weis has gotten over this:
I don't think so. Those were not the snots of a man who will ever forget. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the Chiefs running a quintuple reverse that ends with Jamaal Charles throwing Matt Cassel into the end zone.
CHICAGO (+3.5) over Philadelphia
Coin flip pick: Philadelphia (-3.5)
You know, you can analyze numbers and trends and all that kind of stuff all you want, but not with Julius Peppers. He sort of turns it on when he feels like it. On national TV last Thursday, he felt like it, increasing his season sack total by 150 percent.
This week, with all eyes on Michael Vick, he'll be looking to steal some headlines. That can make all the difference, as you'll remember when Peppers almost single-handedly beat the Packers earlier this year.
St. Louis (+4) over DENVER
Coin flip pick: Denver (-4)
It's just too risky to take the Broncos, who are fully capable of winning by 20 and even more capable of losing by 30. The points seem safer. But barely.
RQFLWP: "But come on — the Broncos scored 49 points last week, and they're a 10-point underdog? Do the oddsmakers know that Josh McDaniels used to coach for the Patriots, who are the masters of playing the 'nobody believes in us' card? For shame."
Note: Maybe McDaniels wanted to get dominated on Monday Night Football to really drive home that "nobody believes in us" bit this week.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
Coin flip pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5)
No, I'm not hopping on that Bucs bandwagon, but I've picked against the Ravens every time they've been favored big (Panthers excluded because they're not an NFL team), and it's worked out so far.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over San Diego
Coin flip pick: San Diego (+3)
How's this for some firepower on Sunday night?
While the Chargers' offense on Monday looked impetuous, their defense impregnable, I just don't see Peyton Manning losing a shootout on his home turf on national TV. His numbers in three Sunday or Monday night games this season: 71-for-109 (65 percent), 830 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs. Oh, and he killed his own brother in one of those contests.
San Francisco (-1) over ARIZONA
Coin flip pick: ARIZONA (+1)
I've developed this weird habit of forgetting about football on Monday nights until about 8:15 p.m., when I get reminded to tune in for kickoff. Here's hoping that come Monday night, I conveniently forget that this game will be taking place.
RQFLWP: "(If Tampa [beats San Francisco] via blowout, expect another NFC West rant next week.)"
Note: For my own mental health, I'll hold off on the rant. For now.
Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 79-76-5
