Yet, in the first week of December, it kind of doesn't seem that way.
Fortunately for us, the matchups to end all matchups will take place this weekend, with the Ravens and Steelers set to renew the "best rivlary in football" and the Jets and Patriots geared up for a rematch to determine AFC East supremacy. Both are night games, and both can lay claim to being the Super Bowls of Week 13.
There are, however, a few other games that have to be played before then, so let's see what we can do with the undercard.
Oh, and I handily beat the coin's picks last week, as I went 10-6 and the flip of the coin went 7-9. So, fortunately, that gimmick is dead after just one week. Ridiculous quotes from last week's picks, however, live on as always.
(Home team in caps.)
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Houston
Football is interesting in that you can't take much from statistics early in the season, because the sample size is so small, and you can't take too much from stats late in the season. That's because of garbage time, large leads that change strategies, defenses facing backups in the fourth quarter, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
So, to point out that the 5-6 Texans rank 31st in the league in passing yards allowed doesn't tell the whole story — especially considering the 9-2 Patriots are the only team ranked behind them. Still, it's not good, and even though Michael Vick (who struggled on Chicago's clunky field) takes a licking, he should feast on this defense on his home turf.
New Orleans (-7) over CINCINNATI
I mean, you do understand that the Bengals blew a 28-7 lead to the Bills, right? If you see single digits (against the defending champs, no less!), then you really don't have much of a decision to make.
Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
The Lions are pesky, but they're without a quarterback. Some would say that they didn't have a quarterback even when Shaun Hill was taking snaps, but those people would just be mean. And, well, factually correct.
Picking against Drew Stanton (2 TDs, 7 INTs in his career) when he'll be dealing with Julius Peppers is generally a good bet.
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Francisco
I kind of get the feeling that Green Bay might have been overachieving for a while there, but you know, when in doubt, go with the 7-4 NFC North team against any NFC West team. It's just the safest possible route.
RQFLWP: "Here's hoping that come Monday night, I conveniently forget that this game [between the 49ers and Cardinals] will be taking place."
Note: Unfortunately, I watched ever second of this atrocity. I still feel dirty.
Jacksonville (n/a) over TENNESSEE
Provided the Giant's latest quarterback victim, David Garrard, is healthy enough to play, the Jags should romp the listless Titans. And then Rusty Smith will freak out and throw his pads in the stands.
RQFLWP: "You hate to pick a team that will start Rusty Smith at quarterback. For one, his name is Rusty Smith. Second, he kind of looks like Cricket from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Third, his name is Rusty Smith."
Note: As it turns out, I wasn't harsh enough on Rusty, as he and the Titans put up a whopping ZERO points on the awful Houston defense, which had allowed 30 points per game in its last four contests. Way to go, Rusty!!
Denver (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY
Josh McDaniels is feeling frisky, and while I don't know if the Broncos will win, 8.5 points is too much — especially considering the Broncos beat the Chiefs by 354 points just three weeks ago.
Thing You May Not Know: Matt Cassel, despite giving everyone the impression that he's kind of terrible, is ranked fourth in the NFL in passer rating. He trails only Michael Vick, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.
Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI
Am I missing something that would explain why Miami (1-4 at home) is a 4.5-point favorite? At home, the Dolphins have been outscored roughly 26-18 every week. That's not to say the Browns are a juggernaut, but since their bye in Week 8, they've scored 97 points and allowed 87. I just don't know that Miami can win by more than a field goal.
RQFLWP: "Worth mocking: How 'bout that Miami ground game last week? Seven carries by the running backs resulting in a whopping 12 yards!"
Note: Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 180 yards on 44 carries. Whatever.
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Buffalo
People keep saying that the Bills are the most exciting 2-9 team in the history of football. People are also stupid.
RQFLWP: "Yet, one more ugly game could spell the end for Mr. Favre."
Note: The ol' gunslinger lives on, at least for one more week.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Washington
This is a tough one. I'll latch on to the fact that the Redskins' leading rusher last week had 11 yards. This week, against the 10th-best rushing defense, the Redskins will have to rely on Donovan McNabb to win them a game on the road in December. I can talk myself into siding against that.
SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland
The last time these two teams met, I made the mistake of thinking the Chargers would win in a cakewalk. Thanks to Oakland getting outscored 70-20 in the two games since their bye week (games that Tom Cable would put more pressure on his team than ever before), I intend to make the same mistake again.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over DALLAS
Maybe Jason Garrett has the Cowboys practicing in pads, and maybe he's infinitely tougher on his players than Wade Phillips, but these are the same Cowboys who make boneheaded mistakes as often as they can (Exhibit A: Roy Williams). You just can't trust them for anything … except making mistakes. They're good for that.
RQFLWP: "While the Chargers' offense on Monday looked impetuous, their defense impregnable, I just don't see Peyton Manning losing a shootout on his home turf on national TV."
Note: Well, with four Manning interceptions, that was pretty wrong right there. Just no way around it.
ARIZONA (+3) over St. Louis
Yes, I just watched them fold in front of a national audience, yes, I just watched Derek Anderson melt down on live television, and yes, I know the Rams won a big game on the road last week. But when the world zigs, I zag, and right now, I'm zagging.
Why? Well, because you could sit here and try to break down an NFC West matchup for hours, using statistics, data, reasoning and logic, or you could just guess because it's the NFC West and they're all terrible and there's pretty much no way to forecast what will happen.
I'm doing the latter.
SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina
I'd really like to see the poor Carolina Panthers win a football game, but after last week's gut-wrenching loss, I'm not sure I'll ever see that happen again.
Seattle, while falling into the "Terrible NFC West" category, beats up on bad teams. Suffice it to say, the Panthers are a bad team.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta
This might be the first time I've taken the Bucs in an important game all year, but I'll explain it like I would if this were a high school geometry test:
- Parity is at its highest this year in the NFL. No team can claim dominance.
- The Falcons beat the Packers last week, temporarily claiming NFC dominance.
- Such dominance, as stated in first bullet point, is fleeting.
- Thus, the Falcons simply cannot win this weekend.
(This is what the 2010 NFL season has come to.)
RQFLWP: "[For the Falcons to beat the Packers], it might take a Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection in the final minute again."
Note: So close! But it was a Matt Bryant field goal.
BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh
I really don't like a Ben Roethlisberger with limited mobility. I know that's kind of a redundant statement, but that foot injury is going to limit him a good deal, and the Ravens should be able to rack up the sacks on the quarterback who's never been afraid to get sacked eight times in a game.
The real story in this one will be watching to see who gets fined the most the following week.
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over New York Jets
There's this feeling in my gut that the Jets are going to roll into Foxboro and just tear the hearts out of the Patriots. Yet, I can't just let my gut do the picking here, so I did a little thinking.
We know that Bill Belichick is a killer when he has extra time to prepare (8-0 last eight seasons after a bye). We know that Belichick's Patriots are killers once the calendar turns from November to December (37-9 record in regular season in December and January). We know that the Patriots haven't lost at home with Brady since 2006. And we know that Belichick's Patriots have not lost to the same divisional opponent twice in one season since 2000.
Now, does all that guarantee that things can't change in one game in the NFL? No, but add in that Mark Sanchez went 8-for-21 for 136 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs last year in Gillette in what was a must-win game at the time, and you can at least feel better about taking the Patriots.
Last week: 10-6
Season: 89-82-5
