So naturally, as Beckett has bounced back from a 2010 season of injury, tumult and uncertainty to regain his spot as one of the best pitchers in the American League, fans and media alike are ready to say that Beckett has reverted to a 2007 version of himself.
Here's the thing, though. Through 10 starts this season, he's been even better this season than he was four years ago.
First of all, you have to look at his durability. In 2007, Beckett didn't make his 10th start until June 3. That was thanks to a long layoff in which he went 15 days between starts. The reason for that, of course, stemmed from the Mother's Day Miracle when Beckett forced the word "avulsion" into the lexicon of the New England sports fan.
Conversely, Beckett made his 10th start of the season on May 24 this season. That's actually the earliest he's made his 10th start in his career.
With that durability, Beckett has compiled incredible numbers though his first 10 starts, despite the fact that he's only been fortunate enough to win four games. He was 8-0 through 10 starts in 2007, but that's really where the advantages end.
Check out a few of the key stats and how they compare in 2007 and 2011.
| 2007 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | W -L | 4-1 |
| 64 | IP | 64 |
| 2.95 | ERA | 1.69 |
| .214 | BAA | .186 |
| 59 | K | 58 |
| 16 | BB | 20 |
When you look at the numbers a couple of things stand out.
First of all, Beckett has somehow thrown the exact same amount of innings through 10 starts in both seasons. That in and of itself is impressive. It's even cooler that he's thrown just 50 more pitches in that span this year than in 2007, but that doesn't really tell us much.
Beckett hasn't been fortunate enough to win as many games this year as he did to open 2007. Consider the fact that he's made five starts in May this year. In those five starts, he's pitched 30 innnings, and he's only given up two earned runs. His record, however, is just 2-0 in those five starts. One of those starts was the rain-marred marathon against the Angels, and in the other two no-decisions, he threw 13 innings and gave up just one run. So yeah, he should have probably won those, as well.
Beckett has also allowed fewer base runners. While his WHIP through 10 starts in 2007 was a dazzling 1.05, he's found a way to be even better this season, as he's allowed just .953 walks and hits per innings.
And for those interested in sabermetrics, consider this: Beckett's batting average against on balls in play (BAPIP) so far this season is .235. In 2007, it was .275. So, if you really wanted to, you could say that Beckett has been "luckier" this season than he was in 2007. Or, if you really wanted to, you could actually watch Beckett's starts this season and know that his numbers this season are legit.
And that may be the most important point. Beckett is passing the "eye test" this season. Stats are great, but if you just watch Beckett, it's clear that at least up until this point, he is back to being the type of pitcher Red Sox fans so desparately want him to be. Now all he has to do is keep it up.
In a good, full year, a pitcher will make 30-35 starts. So it's important to remember that while 10 starts is a nice barometer, it is just that — a barometer. Beckett will need to prove that he can keep those stats constant, and more importantly prove that he can stay healthy.
The brash Texan won at Progressive Field on Wednesday for the first time in his caree. Sort of. It was his first win there in the regular season. If you remember, though, Beckett picked up a win on that same mound just four years earlier in the American League Championship Series behind an eight-inning gem in which he gave up just a run and struck out 11.
That, of course, was 2007. The gold standard. It was a year in which he put together a season of dominance, not just 10 starts of dominance. The Red Sox will surely take another full season of that again this year.
After all, 2007 ended up just fine for both Beckett and the Sox.
