Each of the teams still in the playoff mix in the American League has certain guys it will depend upon down the stretch. Let's examine some of those X factors, not necessarily the best player on any given team but the one whose play could make all the difference until the end of September.
Boston – John Lackey
You love him, you hate him, you need him. For all the talk of Erik Bedard essentially taking the spot of Clay Buchholz, it's Lackey that slides up in the rotation in the eyes of the Red Sox. His ERA might suggest otherwise, but you know Terry Francona has an allegiance to the guys who have been there before, and Lackey's moundmates have been staunch defenders in the righty's tough times. He is your No. 3 starter until he loses that spot. His recent 5-0, 3.58 ERA run suggests he may not anytime soon.
This guy is critical to the health of this rotation, now and perhaps into October.
New York – Alex Rodriguez
The Yankees do not have a lot of issues other than some uncertainty surrounding portions of their rotation, but even those are less severe than some in parts of New England would suggest. Aside from that they hit the ball well, they catch the ball well and their bullpen is among the best in baseball, even with Mariano Rivera's recent hiccups. What could make this the team to beat is if Rodriguez returns and looks anything like he did before his right knee began to really bother him. Rodriguez hit .326 with 21 RBIs in June, but played just seven games in July before shutting it down and having surgery.
Rodriguez begins a rehab assignment Friday and could return to the Yankees next week. New York's offense is nearly on par with Boston's, but it could be even better if the man you love to hate has anything to offer going forward.
Detroit – Al Alburquerque
You may recall that Detroit's bullpen early in the year was so horrendous that staying in any kind of race on a long-term basis seemed impossible. Well, you only need a pulse to be alive in the American League Central, but the emergence of Alburquerque corrected so many of the Tigers' ills. However, Yosemite Sam's favorite player has never thrown more than 66 1/3 innings as a professional and tossed only 34 1/3 last season in the minors. He entered Thursday's action at 37 innings and already had one stint on the disabled list with forearm inflammation.
If Alburquerque can stay healthy and strong, the Tigers bullpen can match up with most of the others on this list, no small factor given their mediocre starting pitching after Justin Verlander. Alburquerque is 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA, allowing just 18 hits and striking out 57 in his 37 frames. Those are phenomenal numbers, and Detroit has needed every bit of it.
Cleveland – Shin-Soo Choo
Like Rodriguez, this is another middle-of-the-order bat about to return from a lengthy layoff. After two straight solid seasons, Choo struggled before being forced to undergo thumb surgery back in June. He could return from a rehab assignment early next week and will be a factor in a lineup that has had some extreme dry spells this year.
Chicago – Adam Dunn
It’s basically been a lost season for Dunn, but he could at least reduce the volume of the boos that rain down around him most nights at U.S. Cellular Field with a strong finish, or at least an average one. Dunn's numbers are just pathetic for a full-time player (.163/.293/.299), but he remains a full-time player. As long as Ozzie Guillen keeps putting him in the lineup (there really aren't many other options), the White Sox will hope that Dunn can find some of the bat speed that has vanished this year.
Just imagine if Chicago, which ranks 10th in the AL in runs scored, had the Dunn that ripped 38 home runs or more for seven straight seasons, even if it was just for the final seven weeks. That might be enough to make up a four-game deficit in the division.
Texas – Adrian Beltre
Unfortunately, Beltre's return from a left hamstring strain will be delayed after he suffered a setback last weekend. He may be out until close to the end of the month. That's not great news for a team that has gone 8-9 since the day Beltre went on the disabled list, watching a four-game lead over the Angels shrink to just 1 1/2 games.
Red Sox fans know how valuable Beltre can be in that cleanup role. He went 2-for-2 with a double and two runs scored in a 12-2 rout of Toronto on the day he was hurt. Since then, Texas has been held to five runs or fewer 13 times in 18 games. The Rangers have 10 games remaining with Anaheim. Beltre has a chance to be around for the final six or so, which could be critical in Texas’ chances of hanging on.
Anaheim – Ervin Santana
The top rotation in the AL (3.40 ERA) went from good to potentially great when Santana began one of his trademark second-half surges, providing a wonderful complement to Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and giving the Angels a scary trio in a possible playoff series. Santana is 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last eight starts, including a no-hitter in Cleveland, which began a string of three straight starts in which he has at least pitched into the ninth.
Anaheim doesn't knock the ball around the park. It will rely heavily on its starting pitching to catch the Rangers. If Santana can keep this up, the Angels could fly past the defending AL champs at some point in their many remaining head-to-head encounters.
