That's all well and good for the most part. Unless, of course, you're a left-handed pitcher taking on AL East lineups with half of your starts coming at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox' participation in all things hot stove may start to heat up a little bit, as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported that left-hander Joe Saunders had been non-tendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks making him a free agent.
This comes on the heels of the news that the Sox may be interested in the lefty, as there was talk that Boston may look into trading for Saunders. Now, they become just one of what's expected to be a least a handful of bidders.
Yet, the numbers seem to suggest that Saunders may not be the best of fits. The 30-year-old is a pitcher who works to contact. He won't walk many betters, but he certainly doesn't strike many out, either. For his career, Saunders averages just five strikeouts per nine innings. Last season, that number was down to 4.6 K's per nine innings. Interestingly, Saunders also saw a dip in his fastball velocity in 2011, as his average fastball velocity dropped 1 mph from 90.6 mph to 89.6 mph.
If you really want to look at some stats, batting average on balls in play seems like a statistic made for Saunders. Last season, the lefty BABIP was .275. Unsurprisingly, Saunders had a pretty decent year despite pedestrian run support. He went 12-13 with a 3.69 ERA. Conversely, when he went 9-17 in 2010, his BABIP was .311. So when a guy who pitches to contact gets "unlucky," he has a bad year. When he's "lucky," he has a good year. Ground-breaking stuff, right?
However, doesn't putting Saunders in Boston — or any AL East city really — increase the chances that he'll be "unlucky" more often than he's "lucky?" You have to wonder how Saunders would hold up making 15-20 starts at Fenway, presumably against right-handed heavy lineups. For what it's worth, right-handed bats hit .282 with a .796 OPS against Saunders for his career. The Green Monster suddenly feels much closer, doesn't it?
However, in the interest of fairness, it must be mentioned that Saunders' career numbers at Fenway aren't terrible. He's actually 4-2 in nine career starts with a 4.17 ERA, and he averages six innings a start. If he can do that for an entire season, he'd certainly be a welcomed addition. The obvious question, though, is can he?
It's no secret that you can never have too much starting pitching. Next to Joe Saunders' name on his baseball card are the letters "SP," so that should make him an attractive option at the right price by itself. Saunders is also a workhorse. He's thrown no fewer than 186 innings in a season over the last four years. That's including a career-high 212 innings last year. At the very least, he'll take the ball every five days and more than likely, he's going to work fairly deep into his start.
Other than that, however, you can't be sure what you'd get from Saunders. And the risk of that uncertainty may be just too big to take.
Photo via Flickr/AZCoyote85044
