Aaron Rodgers, Packers Favored to Win NFC North, Despite Improvement Across Division

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Aug 29, 2012

Aaron Rodgers, Packers Favored to Win NFC North, Despite Improvement Across DivisionDo you realize that the champion of the NFC North Division has
never won the Super Bowl? Yes, the Green Bay Packers did take home the Vince
Lombardi Trophy two seasons ago but the Pack weren't the North champs that
year, the Chicago Bears were. The last time a champion from the North Division
won it all was Green Bay in the 1996 season — Brett Favre's only Super Bowl win — when it was still the Central Division.

However, the 2012 Packers could well end that drought as they are
the 6-1 second-favorites at Bovada to win Super Bowl XLVII as well as the 10-3
favorites to win the NFC and -225 to repeat as North Division champs.

Green Bay looked invincible for the first 14 games of last season.
Aaron Rodgers, the eventual league MVP and Bovada 11-2 favorite to repeat, was
tearing up the NFL and the Pack were on course to become the third team in NFL
history to finish a regular season unbeaten. Those dreams ended in Week 15 when
the Packers were upset in Kansas City, but Green Bay still finished 15-1 and
had home field throughout the NFC playoffs. 

If there was one major flaw on the 2011 Packers it was pass
defense. Green Bay allowed 4,976 yards through the air in the regular season,
the most in NFL history (it did lead the league with 31 interceptions). Giants quarterback Eli Manning picked apart that defense in the NFC divisional round as New
York stunned Green Bay 37-20 at Lambeau Field.

The Packers can officially put last season behind them a week from
Sunday when they host San Francisco, the team that lost to New York in the NFC
Championship Game. Green Bay is currently a 5.5-point favorite at the book. The
Pack were unbeaten at Lambeau in the 2011 regular season and covered in seven
of those eight games. 

If there is one thing to monitor with Green Bay, it's
fourth-quarter comebacks. Since Mike McCarthy became the team's head coach six
years ago, the Packers are just 7-26 in fourth-quarter comeback opportunities.
Last year that mark was 0-2. Green Bay's over/under wins total for this season
is 12 (under the -190 favorite), tied with New England for the most. Green Bay
has the shortest odds of any NFC team to make the playoffs at -600. Missing the
postseason is +400.

Marshall Plan In Chicago

The Chicago Bears looked like a serious Super Bowl contender last
season when they started 7-3. But in that 10th game, in San Diego, quarterback
Jay Cutler
suffered a season-ending thumb injury. The Bears had no experienced
backup for Cutler and the wheels fell off as Chicago lost five straight
immediately after the injury and missed the playoffs at 8-8.

Chicago made one of this offseason's biggest trades, acquiring
receiver Brandon Marshall from the Miami Dolphins. Cutler hasn't had a big, No.
1-caliber receiver in Chicago, but he and Marshall had their best seasons when
they played together in Denver. Marshall seems a lock to be the Bears' first
1,000-yard receiver since 2002. Chicago also added running back Michael Bush as
a power alternative to Matt Forte and signed veteran Jason Campbell to back up
Cutler. Chicago's offense should be markedly improved in 2012 if the offensive
line can protect the QB.

The Bears always have a strong defense and should again in 2012 if
middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is healthy. He suffered sprained ligaments in
his left knee in last season's finale and recently had surgery on the same
knee. He hasn't played a down in the preseason and hasn't practiced in weeks.
Urlacher says he expects to be ready for the season opener, but admits he will
have to play though the injury all season.

Chicago is the +350 second-favorite at the book to win the North
and its over/under wins total is 9.5 (both -115). The Bears are -130 to make
the playoffs and even money to miss out. Chicago opens at home versus Andrew Luck
and the Colts and is a 9.5-point favorite, one of the biggest spreads of Week
1.

The Detroit Lions haven't won a division title since 1993, but the
franchise is on the way up after reaching the postseason last year for the
first time since 1999 and winning 10 games for the first time since 1995. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for more than 5,000 yards in a breakout season and the
Lions have the game's most dominant receiver in Calvin Johnson, who led the NFL
with 1,681 yards and was second with 16 TD catches.

The Lions have questions at running back after finishing 29th in
the league in rushing a year ago. Jahvid Best was on his way to a big season
before suffering a concussion. He still hasn't been cleared to return and will start
the season on the PUP list, meaning he must miss the first six games. Last
year's second-round pick, Mikel Leshoure, missed all of 2011 with an Achilles' injury and is suspended for the first two games of 2012. A Detroit back hasn't
rushed for 1,000 yards since 2004.

The Lions also have questions on defense, which allowed 31.7
points per game in the final nine of last year. Detroit, which is an 8.5-point
home favorite for its opener versus St. Louis, is +450 to win the division. The
Lions' over/under wins total is 9 (under -140 favorite), they are even money to
make the postseason and -130 to miss.

The Minnesota Vikings brought up the rear of the NFC North at 3-13
a year ago and the Vikes are +2000 long shots to win the division this year.
Those are the longest odds of any NFC team to win a division. Star running back
Adrian Peterson is working his way back from a serious knee injury and hasn't
played in the preseason. Christian Ponder showed occasional signs of stardom
last year as a rookie quarterback — he started the final 10 games and is the clear No. 1
now. 

Defensively, the Vikings have one of the best pass-rushers in the
game in Jared Allen. The end led the NFL with 22 sacks a year ago, just a
half-sack shy of the NFL record. But there's not much else on that side of the
ball other than Allen. 

The Vikings were better than their record a year ago as nine of
their losses were by seven points or fewer. Minnesota's over/under wins total
this season is 6 (over -120 favorite) and it is a +700 long shot to make the playoffs,
with no at -1400. The Vikings are 4.5-point home favorites for their opener vs.
Jacksonville.

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